Cummins
Cummins
Industrial Products F&OKey Fundamentals
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Key Insights
Strengths
4- Company is almost debt free.
- Company has delivered good profit growth of 30.8% CAGR over last 5 years
- Company has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 28.8%
- Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 70.0%
Weaknesses
1- Stock is trading at 16.6 times its book value
Growth Rate
AI Analysis — Bull vs Bear
Cummins India Ltd commands a market cap of ₹1,39,653 Cr with a virtually debt-free balance sheet, 30% ROE in the last year, and a 5-year profit CAGR of ~31%. However, the stock trades at a PE of 60.2x and 16.8x book value, reflecting elevated valuations relative to historical earnings growth of 13% over 10 years.
- Virtually debt-free balance sheet provides significant financial flexibility and resilience during economic downturns
- Last-year ROE of 30% and 3-year average ROE of ~29% indicate consistently high capital efficiency well above the cost of equity
- Compounded profit growth of 31% CAGR over 5 years demonstrates strong earnings momentum and operating leverage
- Healthy dividend payout ratio of 70% with a current dividend yield of 1.28%, reflecting shareholder-friendly capital allocation
- Sales CAGR of 23% over 5 years and 15% TTM growth suggest sustained demand across power generation and industrial segments
- 10-year ROE of 22% shows durable competitive advantages and pricing power maintained across multiple business cycles
- 3-year compounded profit growth of 26% outpacing 3-year sales growth of 16% indicates expanding margins and improving cost structure
- Stock price CAGR of 38% over 5 years reflects sustained market confidence in the company's long-term earnings trajectory
- PE ratio of 60.2x is significantly elevated compared to typical industrial sector multiples, leaving limited margin of safety
- Price-to-book ratio of 16.8x implies the stock prices in many years of future growth, increasing downside risk if growth disappoints
- 10-year compounded sales growth of only 10% suggests the current 15% TTM growth rate may not be sustainable over a full cycle
- 10-year compounded profit growth of 13% is far below the 5-year rate of 31%, indicating recent earnings acceleration may partly reflect cyclical tailwinds rather than structural improvement
- TTM profit growth of 14% is decelerating compared to the 3-year CAGR of 26%, signaling potential earnings growth fatigue at current scale
- Dividend yield of 1.28% is modest relative to the 60.2x PE, meaning investors are primarily dependent on capital appreciation for returns
- 1-year stock price CAGR of 28% versus TTM profit growth of 14% implies valuation multiple expansion rather than earnings-driven appreciation
- As a subsidiary of Cummins Inc (USA), strategic decisions including technology roadmap and capital allocation may prioritize global parent interests over minority Indian shareholders
This is AI-generated analysis, not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.
AI News Digest
- Q3 revenue & profit decline Aug 25
Q3 FY26 revenue fell 1.33% YoY to ₹3,054.92 crore, net income dropped 12.96% YoY to ₹486.06 crore, and operating income declined 16.55% YoY to ₹457.57 crore.
- Margin pressure from commodities Aug 25
EBITDA margins were soft in Q1 FY27 due to commodity price spikes and employee cost true-ups. Motilal Oswal trimmed FY27/FY28/FY29 estimates by 4.7%/2.5%/2.2% respectively.
- BofA maintains Underperform rating Aug 25
Bank of America maintained an Underperform rating despite raising target estimates, citing valuation concerns with the stock trading at 52.8x FY27E P/E.
- Sharp near-term share price drop Aug 25
Stock fell 8.34% over 7 days and 11.58% over 30 days, trading at ₹5,230 amid divergence between rising earnings estimates and stretched valuations.
- Weak construction & truck demand Aug 25
Construction segment remains weak, North American truck demand is soft, and the non-HHP segment is growing at a slower pace than high-horsepower gensets.
- Data center demand driving growth Aug 25
Power generation business was selected to supply BESS for a large U.S. data center AI project. Motilal Oswal estimates 19% revenue CAGR for the powergen segment over FY26-29.
- Motilal Oswal Buy, ₹6,400 target Aug 25
Motilal Oswal reiterated Buy with a ₹6,400 target price (23% upside from ₹5,230), expecting revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 18%/18%/19% over FY26-29.
- Strong multi-segment growth outlook Aug 25
Distribution segment projected at 21% CAGR, industrial at 12% CAGR, and exports at 16% CAGR over FY26-29, driven by railways, mining, defense, and marine applications.
- BESS launch in FY26 Aug 25
Launch of Battery Energy Storage System solutions in FY26 positions the company to capture renewable integration and grid resilience opportunities.
- Price hikes to defend margins Aug 25
Company took price hikes in July 2026 to pass on raw material pressures and continues evaluating additional pricing actions to defend its 20-21% EBITDA margin target.
- Showcase at bauma CONEXPO 2026 Sep 09
Cummins India will exhibit power generation, distribution, energy storage and aftermarket solutions at bauma CONEXPO India 2026 from September 15-18 at Greater Noida (Hall 14, Booth B-41).
TL;DR: Cummins India faces near-term headwinds from declining Q3 revenue (-1.33% YoY), margin compression due to commodity costs, and stretched valuations at 52.8x FY27E P/E. However, the structural story remains strong with data center-led HHP genset demand, BESS expansion, and diversified growth across distribution (21% CAGR), exports (16% CAGR), and industrial segments. The trend is mixed — near-term earnings and margins are under pressure, but the company's positioning in AI-driven data center power and July 2026 price hikes should support a recovery in FY28-29 margins toward the 21%+ target.
Quarterly Results
| Particulars | Jun 2023 | Sep 2023 | Dec 2023 | Mar 2024 | Jun 2024 | Sep 2024 | Dec 2024 | Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | Sep 2025 | Dec 2025 | Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 2,218 | 1,922 | 2,541 | 2,319 | 2,316 | 2,509 | 3,096 | 2,470 | 2,907 | 3,170 | 3,055 | 3,011 | 3,426 |
| Expenses | 1,876 | 1,575 | 1,999 | 1,781 | 1,842 | 2,025 | 2,499 | 1,945 | 2,283 | 2,475 | 2,420 | 2,369 | 2,810 |
| Operating Profit | 342 | 346 | 543 | 539 | 473 | 484 | 598 | 525 | 624 | 695 | 634 | 642 | 616 |
| OPM % | 15% | 18% | 21% | 23% | 20% | 19% | 19% | 21% | 21% | 22% | 21% | 21% | 18% |
| Other Income | 155 | 128 | 153 | 186 | 171 | 157 | 168 | 217 | 212 | 181 | 46 | 263 | 227 |
| Interest | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| Depreciation | 36 | 38 | 42 | 42 | 44 | 45 | 49 | 46 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 53 |
| PBT | 453 | 429 | 647 | 676 | 595 | 594 | 714 | 690 | 785 | 824 | 626 | 852 | 787 |
| Tax % | 22% | 23% | 23% | 20% | 22% | 24% | 22% | 23% | 23% | 24% | 22% | 24% | 23% |
| Net Profit | 354 | 329 | 499 | 539 | 463 | 449 | 558 | 530 | 604 | 622 | 486 | 649 | 609 |
| EPS in Rs | 12.76 | 11.87 | 18 | 19.44 | 16.69 | 16.21 | 20.15 | 19.1 | 21.79 | 22.45 | 17.53 | 23.43 | 21.98 |
Profit & Loss
| Particulars | Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 4,916 | 4,720 | 5,106 | 5,112 | 5,697 | 5,191 | 4,360 | 6,171 | 7,772 | 9,000 | 10,391 | 12,143 | 12,662 |
| Expenses | 4,101 | 3,945 | 4,302 | 4,374 | 4,828 | 4,598 | 3,757 | 5,288 | 6,524 | 7,231 | 8,311 | 9,548 | 10,075 |
| Operating Profit | 815 | 775 | 805 | 738 | 869 | 593 | 603 | 883 | 1,248 | 1,770 | 2,080 | 2,595 | 2,588 |
| OPM % | 17% | 16% | 16% | 14% | 15% | 11% | 14% | 14% | 16% | 20% | 20% | 21% | 20% |
| Other Income | 208 | 116 | 141 | 298 | 328 | 356 | 366 | 472 | 502 | 622 | 714 | 702 | 717 |
| Interest | 2 | 10 | 17 | 15 | 17 | 21 | 17 | 12 | 16 | 27 | 16 | 12 | 14 |
| Depreciation | 86 | 81 | 85 | 94 | 111 | 121 | 127 | 136 | 142 | 159 | 185 | 199 | 203 |
| PBT | 935 | 799 | 843 | 927 | 1,069 | 807 | 825 | 1,207 | 1,591 | 2,205 | 2,593 | 3,086 | 3,088 |
| Tax % | 19% | 21% | 22% | 23% | 31% | 13% | 23% | 23% | 23% | 22% | 23% | 23% | — |
| Net Profit | 772 | 721 | 736 | 712 | 743 | 706 | 635 | 934 | 1,228 | 1,721 | 2,000 | 2,362 | 2,367 |
| EPS in Rs | 27.85 | 26.02 | 26.56 | 25.68 | 26.79 | 25.45 | 22.91 | 33.68 | 44.31 | 62.07 | 72.15 | 85.2 | 85.39 |
| Div. Payout % | 50% | 54% | 53% | 58% | 63% | 55% | 65% | 55% | 56% | 61% | 71% | 77% | — |
Balance Sheet
| Particulars | Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity Capital | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 |
| Reserves | 3,033 | 3,553 | 3,816 | 4,063 | 4,228 | 4,347 | 4,596 | 5,090 | 5,703 | 6,557 | 7,506 | 8,420 |
| Borrowings | 3 | 3 | 252 | 257 | 313 | 512 | 40 | 418 | 376 | 127 | 30 | 37 |
| Other Liabilities | 1,508 | 1,051 | 1,091 | 1,339 | 1,465 | 1,282 | 1,265 | 1,549 | 1,784 | 2,231 | 2,577 | 2,793 |
| Total Liabilities | 4,599 | 4,662 | 5,214 | 5,715 | 6,060 | 6,196 | 5,956 | 7,112 | 7,919 | 8,971 | 10,168 | 11,304 |
| Fixed Assets | 1,307 | 1,291 | 1,502 | 2,021 | 2,015 | 2,270 | 2,189 | 2,209 | 2,226 | 2,302 | 2,364 | 2,383 |
| CWIP | 171 | 519 | 463 | 39 | 159 | 80 | 128 | 61 | 41 | 97 | 85 | 98 |
| Investments | 536 | 489 | 862 | 708 | 468 | 1,038 | 599 | 892 | 1,457 | 1,642 | 1,482 | 2,153 |
| Other Assets | 2,585 | 2,364 | 2,387 | 2,947 | 3,418 | 2,809 | 3,041 | 3,951 | 4,194 | 4,930 | 6,238 | 6,670 |
| Total Assets | 4,599 | 4,662 | 5,214 | 5,715 | 6,060 | 6,196 | 5,956 | 7,112 | 7,919 | 8,971 | 10,168 | 11,304 |
Cash Flow
| Particulars | Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating | 589 | 696 | 748 | 632 | 553 | 601 | 789 | 712 | 820 | 1,285 | 1,683 | 1,734 |
| Investing | -146 | -215 | -483 | -134 | 15 | -202 | 25 | -574 | 87 | -248 | -578 | 26 |
| Financing | -444 | -471 | -226 | -470 | -525 | -412 | -873 | -82 | -687 | -1,134 | -1,168 | -1,495 |
| Net Cash Flow | -1 | 10 | 39 | 28 | 43 | -14 | -60 | 56 | 219 | -97 | -63 | 265 |
| Free Cash Flow | 251 | 205 | 516 | 540 | 279 | 364 | 675 | 782 | 665 | 1,003 | 1,465 | 1,487 |
| CFO/OP | 98 | 112 | 116 | 110 | 91 | 129 | 145 | 109 | 94 | 101 | 109 | 91 |
Ratios
| Particulars | Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debtor Days | 73 | 73 | 69 | 96 | 82 | 81 | 91 | 74 | 75 | 85 | 80 | 83 |
| Inventory Days | 89 | 75 | 63 | 61 | 64 | 62 | 75 | 66 | 63 | 60 | 56 | 56 |
| Days Payable | 79 | 69 | 68 | 85 | 83 | 75 | 97 | 89 | 81 | 89 | 87 | 79 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 83 | 79 | 65 | 71 | 63 | 68 | 69 | 51 | 58 | 56 | 49 | 60 |
| Working Capital Days | 54 | 78 | 49 | 57 | 59 | 40 | 72 | 39 | 36 | 48 | 46 | 53 |
| ROCE % | — | 24% | 22% | 21% | 24% | 18% | 17% | 21% | 27% | 35% | 36% | 40% |
Insights
BetaAI-extracted from concalls & annual reports · figures as reported, with sources
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62 extracted metrics + investor summaries across FY10–FY26.
Documents
Frequently Asked Questions about Cummins
What does Cummins India Ltd do?
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Which sector does Cummins India Ltd belong to?
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Does Cummins India Ltd pay dividends?
What is the Return on Equity (ROE) of Cummins India Ltd?
Company Information
Cummins India Ltd is a part of the Cummins Inc. Group USA. It designs, manufactures, distributes and services diesel and alternative fuel engines from 2.8 to 100 liters, diesel and alternative-fueled power generator sets of up to 3000 kW (3750 kVA), as well as related components and technology.[1]
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