NMDC
NMDC
Metals & Mining F&OKey Fundamentals
MidcapIndustrial MineralsMetals & MiningTapetide Score
Data-driven rating, 0–100. How it works →
Key Insights
Strengths
4- Stock is providing a good dividend yield of 3.03%.
- Company is expected to give good quarter
- Company has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 23.6%
- Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 41.3%
Weaknesses
2- Contingent liabilities of Rs.24,037 Cr.
- Working capital days have increased from 43.7 days to 67.3 days
Growth Rate
AI Analysis — Bull vs Bear
anthropic claude-opus-4.6 2d agoNMDC Ltd is a state-owned iron ore mining company with a market cap of ₹72,603 Cr, trading at a PE of 10x with a 3-year ROE of 24% and dividend yield of 2.96%. TTM sales growth stands at 27% while profit growth trails at 14%, and the company carries contingent liabilities of ₹24,037 Cr against a backdrop of improving top-line momentum.
- Attractive valuation with PE of 10x, well below the broader market average, suggesting limited downside priced into earnings
- Consistent return on equity with 3-year ROE at 24%, 5-year ROE at 26%, and 10-year ROE at 21%, indicating durable capital efficiency
- Strong TTM revenue growth of 27%, accelerating above the 3-year compounded sales CAGR of 22%
- Healthy dividend payout of 41.3% with a current dividend yield of 2.96%, providing meaningful income in a low-yield market
- Price-to-book of 2.19x is reasonable for a mining company with 20%+ ROE, implying the market is not pricing in full earnings power
- Compounded sales CAGR of 16-17% over 5 and 10-year periods demonstrates long-term secular growth in iron ore volumes and realisations
- Stock CAGR of 23% over 3 years and 17% over 5 years shows sustained wealth creation for shareholders
- Expected to deliver a good upcoming quarter, suggesting near-term earnings momentum remains intact
- Contingent liabilities of ₹24,037 Cr are substantial relative to the ₹72,603 Cr market cap (roughly 33%), posing a material risk if crystallised
- Working capital days have deteriorated from 43.7 to 67.3 days, a 54% increase that signals declining operational efficiency or delayed receivables
- Profit CAGR of 14% TTM lags revenue growth of 27% TTM, indicating margin compression or rising cost pressures
- 5-year compounded profit CAGR of just 4% versus 16% sales CAGR over the same period highlights inconsistent bottom-line conversion over medium-term cycles
- As a government-owned entity, NMDC is exposed to policy risks including ad-hoc changes in royalties, export duties, and dividend extraction by the exchequer
- Iron ore is a cyclical commodity and NMDC's earnings are highly sensitive to global steel demand and Chinese economic activity, introducing significant volatility
- 10-year stock CAGR of 12% underperforms broader indices, suggesting the market has historically assigned a structural discount to the business
This is AI-generated analysis, not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.
AI News Digest
anthropic claude-opus-4.6 2h ago- Production-sales gap widens Sep 2
Cumulative Apr-Aug production up 26% to 23.23 MT but sales up only 2% to 18.72 MT, signaling inventory buildup that could pressure margins.
- Consecutive iron ore price cuts Aug 17
NMDC implemented price cuts on Jul 10 and Aug 8 totaling over 7%, bringing prices below Q2 FY26 averages amid higher domestic ore availability and weak global prices.
- Citi and Goldman retain Sell Aug 17
Citi cut target to ₹80 from ₹85 citing rangebound-to-lower domestic prices; Goldman Sachs maintained Sell at ₹84 predicting weak Q2 FY27 earnings.
- Stock down 14% from 52-week high Aug 17
Shares fell to ~₹81.24, down 14% from the 52-week high of ₹97.49 on Jun 3, with Q1 EBITDA of ₹2,468 crore missing Nuvama's ₹2,620 crore estimate.
- Wage revision cost increase Sep 8
Tripartite wage settlement effective Jan 2022 provides 100% DA neutralisation, 15% minimum guaranteed benefit, and 30% cafeteria allowance on basic pay for all non-executives.
- Karnataka division sales weak Aug 17
Karnataka sales declined 4% YoY in August 2026 and 47.76% YoY in May 2026, indicating persistent demand softness in the southern region.
- Lump ore price hiked ₹150/t Sep 9
NMDC raised lump ore price to ₹5,400/t from ₹5,250/t effective Sep 9, reversing consecutive Jul-Aug price cuts and signaling pricing recovery.
- Record Aug production up 21% Sep 2
August 2026 iron ore production hit highest-ever 4.07 MT, up 21% YoY, with cumulative Apr-Aug at 23.23 MT tracking toward the 60 MT FY27 target.
- Coal diversification imminent Sep 6
Commercial thermal coal production from Tokisud North mine (2.3 MTPA peak capacity) expected in Q2 FY27, with coal business projected to add ₹5,000 crore revenue over three years.
- Strong FY26 annual performance Aug 17
FY26 consolidated revenue surged 34% to ₹32,071 crore with record 53 MT production; net profit rose 13.4% to ₹7,415 crore with ROE at 21.87%.
- Motilal Oswal and Nuvama upgrade Aug 18
Motilal Oswal issued Buy with ₹98 target at 6.5x FY28E EV/EBITDA; Nuvama upgraded to Buy from Hold with ₹97 target citing H2 recovery expectations.
- GIFT City subsidiary formed Sep 3
NMDC incorporated NMDC Global IFSC Limited in GIFT City on Sep 2 to expand international and treasury operations, supporting its 100 MT long-term target.
- Karnataka mineral tax overhang removed Aug 17
Central Mines and Minerals Amendment Bill 2026 overrules Karnataka's mineral tax bill, potentially eliminating NMDC's ₹15,800 crore contingent liability.
- AGM set for Sep 28, 2026 Sep 6
68th AGM scheduled via video conferencing on Sep 28, with e-voting from Sep 24-27 and record date of Oct 5 for FY26 final dividend.
- New statutory auditor appointed Sep 8
M/s. M C Bhandari & Co. appointed as statutory auditor for consolidated and standalone accounts effective Sep 8, along with three branch audit firms.
- FY26 BRSR report released Sep 6
NMDC disclosed ESG metrics including 198,372 tCO2e carbon footprint, 53 MTPA iron ore production, and zero employee fatalities in its FY26 sustainability report.
- Director Chatterjee steps down Aug 27
Ashish Chatterjee ceased as Government Nominee Director effective Aug 24, 2026, per Ministry of Steel confirmation.
TL;DR: NMDC is executing well on production, hitting record output with 23.23 MT in Apr-Aug and tracking toward its 60 MT FY27 target, backed by strong FY26 financials (revenue up 34%, record 53 MT). The key risk is a widening production-sales gap — output is growing far faster than offtake — which combined with consecutive price cuts and weak global iron ore prices could compress near-term margins. The Sep 9 lump ore price hike and imminent coal mine commissioning are encouraging signals. The trend is cautiously improving headed into H2 FY27, but investors should watch whether sales volumes catch up with production in the post-monsoon period.
Quarterly Results
| Particulars | Jun 2023 | Sep 2023 | Dec 2023 | Mar 2024 | Jun 2024 | Sep 2024 | Dec 2024 | Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | Sep 2025 | Dec 2025 | Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 5,395 | 4,014 | 5,410 | 6,489 | 5,414 | 4,919 | 6,568 | 7,005 | 6,739 | 6,378 | 7,611 | 11,343 | 6,795 |
| Expenses | 3,401 | 2,824 | 3,403 | 4,388 | 3,074 | 3,533 | 4,196 | 4,953 | 4,260 | 4,385 | 5,467 | 8,700 | 4,327 |
| Operating Profit | 1,994 | 1,190 | 2,007 | 2,102 | 2,340 | 1,386 | 2,372 | 2,051 | 2,478 | 1,993 | 2,144 | 2,644 | 2,468 |
| OPM % | 37% | 30% | 37% | 32% | 43% | 28% | 36% | 29% | 37% | 31% | 28% | 23% | 36% |
| Other Income | 294 | 321 | 84 | 389 | 365 | 361 | 375 | 492 | 300 | 383 | 372 | 432 | 347 |
| Interest | 6 | 19 | 32 | 21 | 23 | 29 | 61 | 65 | 27 | 8 | 35 | 51 | 22 |
| Depreciation | 69 | 89 | 82 | 111 | 74 | 103 | 103 | 141 | 109 | 110 | 107 | 152 | 103 |
| PBT | 2,212 | 1,404 | 1,977 | 2,359 | 2,608 | 1,614 | 2,584 | 2,338 | 2,643 | 2,259 | 2,375 | 2,873 | 2,691 |
| Tax % | 25% | 27% | 26% | 40% | 25% | 26% | 27% | 37% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 30% | 25% |
| Net Profit | 1,653 | 1,026 | 1,482 | 1,410 | 1,969 | 1,205 | 1,880 | 1,477 | 1,968 | 1,698 | 1,757 | 2,027 | 1,976 |
| EPS in Rs | 1.88 | 1.17 | 1.69 | 1.61 | 2.24 | 1.38 | 2.14 | 1.68 | 2.24 | 1.93 | 2 | 2.31 | 2.25 |
Profit & Loss
| Particulars | Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 12,356 | 6,456 | 8,828 | 11,615 | 12,153 | 11,699 | 15,370 | 25,965 | 17,667 | 21,308 | 23,906 | 32,071 | 32,127 |
| Expenses | 4,591 | 3,771 | 5,233 | 5,812 | 5,228 | 5,697 | 6,580 | 13,338 | 11,613 | 14,014 | 15,755 | 22,811 | 22,878 |
| Operating Profit | 7,765 | 2,685 | 3,595 | 5,803 | 6,925 | 6,003 | 8,790 | 12,626 | 6,054 | 7,294 | 8,150 | 9,260 | 9,249 |
| OPM % | 63% | 42% | 41% | 50% | 57% | 51% | 57% | 49% | 34% | 34% | 34% | 29% | 29% |
| Other Income | 2,155 | 1,682 | 910 | 667 | 588 | 416 | 351 | 716 | 2,004 | 1,087 | 1,591 | 1,488 | 1,535 |
| Interest | 0 | 66 | 21 | 37 | 40 | 10 | 17 | 39 | 75 | 78 | 178 | 121 | 116 |
| Depreciation | 173 | 218 | 197 | 257 | 279 | 295 | 229 | 288 | 336 | 351 | 420 | 477 | 472 |
| PBT | 9,747 | 4,084 | 4,287 | 6,176 | 7,194 | 6,114 | 8,896 | 13,016 | 7,646 | 7,952 | 9,143 | 10,149 | 10,197 |
| Tax % | 34% | 34% | 40% | 38% | 36% | 41% | 30% | 27% | 28% | 30% | 28% | 27% | — |
| Net Profit | 6,351 | 2,544 | 2,543 | 3,808 | 4,617 | 3,573 | 6,276 | 9,429 | 5,601 | 5,567 | 6,520 | 7,450 | 7,459 |
| EPS in Rs | 5.34 | 2.14 | 2.68 | 4.01 | 5.03 | 3.89 | 7.14 | 10.72 | 6.37 | 6.34 | 7.43 | 8.47 | 8.49 |
| Div. Payout % | 53% | 171% | 64% | 36% | 37% | 45% | 36% | 46% | 35% | 38% | 44% | 41% | — |
Balance Sheet
| Particulars | Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity Capital | 396 | 396 | 316 | 316 | 306 | 306 | 293 | 293 | 293 | 293 | 879 | 879 |
| Reserves | 31,870 | 28,784 | 22,266 | 24,101 | 25,738 | 27,367 | 29,591 | 17,725 | 22,328 | 25,363 | 28,817 | 33,183 |
| Borrowings | 0 | 1,497 | 0 | 500 | 364 | 566 | 1,994 | 1,800 | 2,128 | 3,359 | 4,276 | 6,407 |
| Other Liabilities | 2,197 | 2,079 | 3,201 | 3,774 | 3,483 | 3,056 | 5,051 | 5,094 | 5,204 | 6,646 | 7,035 | 7,851 |
| Total Liabilities | 34,464 | 32,756 | 25,784 | 28,691 | 29,891 | 31,294 | 36,930 | 24,912 | 29,953 | 35,661 | 41,007 | 48,320 |
| Fixed Assets | 1,468 | 2,058 | 2,095 | 3,457 | 3,512 | 3,810 | 3,933 | 3,662 | 3,199 | 3,377 | 5,038 | 5,856 |
| CWIP | 7,801 | 9,747 | 11,855 | 12,545 | 13,819 | 15,530 | 17,158 | 1,333 | 1,998 | 3,235 | 4,737 | 6,749 |
| Investments | 319 | 592 | 612 | 673 | 859 | 910 | 875 | 895 | 940 | 956 | 978 | 1,372 |
| Other Assets | 24,876 | 20,359 | 11,221 | 12,016 | 11,701 | 11,045 | 14,964 | 19,022 | 23,816 | 28,094 | 30,253 | 34,344 |
| Total Assets | 34,464 | 32,756 | 25,784 | 28,691 | 29,891 | 31,294 | 36,930 | 24,912 | 29,953 | 35,661 | 41,007 | 48,320 |
Cash Flow
| Particulars | Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating | 3,999 | 2,502 | 2,109 | 3,376 | 4,002 | 2,126 | 7,266 | 6,942 | 1,838 | 7,394 | 1,894 | 4,996 |
| Investing | -517 | 3,645 | 5,171 | -1,865 | -789 | -313 | -4,316 | -3,214 | 202 | -6,076 | 306 | -3,842 |
| Financing | -3,449 | -6,290 | -7,249 | -1,557 | -3,201 | -1,753 | -2,591 | -4,067 | -2,067 | -1,302 | -2,225 | -1,092 |
| Net Cash Flow | 33 | -144 | 31 | -46 | 11 | 60 | 359 | -339 | -28 | 16 | -25 | 63 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,185 | -1,073 | -211 | 1,318 | 1,996 | -278 | 5,644 | 5,743 | 590 | 5,547 | -1,336 | 1,826 |
| CFO/OP | 91 | 157 | 102 | 99 | 95 | 73 | 111 | 89 | 65 | 126 | 54 | 85 |
Ratios
| Particulars | Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debtor Days | 52 | 45 | 43 | 46 | 43 | 69 | 51 | 42 | 90 | 60 | 118 | 105 |
| Inventory Days | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 170 |
| Days Payable | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 27 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 52 | 45 | 43 | 46 | 43 | 69 | 51 | 42 | 90 | 60 | 118 | 247 |
| Working Capital Days | 101 | 7 | 3 | -4 | 9 | 53 | -19 | 30 | 94 | 9 | 55 | 67 |
| ROCE % | 32% | 14% | 16% | 25% | 28% | 23% | 30% | 50% | 29% | 31% | 30% | 28% |
Insights
BetaAI-extracted from concalls & annual reports · figures as reported, with sources
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65 extracted metrics + investor summaries across FY06–FY26.
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Company Information
NMDC is engaged in exploration and production of Iron Ore along with Diamond, production and sale of Sponge Iron and generation and sale of Wind Power.(Source : 202003 Annual Report Page No:119)
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