NTPC
NTPC
Power F&OKey Fundamentals
LargecapPower GenerationPowerTapetide Score
Data-driven rating, 0–100. How it works →
Key Insights
Strengths
1- Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 34.3%
Weaknesses
3- The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 10.9% over past five years.
- Tax rate seems low
- Company might be capitalizing the interest cost
Growth Rate
AI Analysis — Bull vs Bear
NTPC Ltd, India's largest power generation company, trades at a market cap of ₹3,24,984 Cr with a PE of 11.5x and a dividend yield of 2.69%. Compounded profit growth of 20% over three years outpaces a modest 2% sales growth over the same period, reflecting improving margins but raising questions about top-line momentum.
- PE of 11.5x is attractive for a utility of this scale, suggesting the stock is not pricing in aggressive growth expectations
- Consistent ROE averaging 14% over 5 years and improving to 15% last year indicates disciplined capital allocation for a capital-intensive business
- Compounded profit growth of 20% over 3 years significantly outpaces sales growth, pointing to meaningful margin expansion and operational efficiency gains
- Dividend yield of 2.69% with a healthy payout ratio of 34.3% offers steady income, backed by regulated return visibility
- 10-year compounded sales growth of 10% and profit growth of 10% demonstrate a long track record of steady, predictable expansion
- Price-to-book of 1.61x is reasonable for a utility earning 15% ROE, implying the market is not assigning a significant premium
- TTM profit growth of 16% continues the recent trend of double-digit earnings expansion even as revenue growth has moderated to 2% TTM
- TTM sales growth has decelerated sharply to just 2%, and 3-year compounded sales CAGR is also only 2%, signalling stalling top-line momentum
- 5-year compounded sales growth of only 10.9% is considered poor for a company of this size operating in a power-deficit economy
- Potential capitalisation of interest costs may be flattering reported profitability and understating true operating expenses
- Low effective tax rate raises concerns about sustainability of current earnings levels if tax benefits normalise
- Stock CAGR of just 1% over the past 1 year suggests the market has already priced in near-term positives and momentum has stalled
- Debt-to-equity data is unavailable, but as a capital-intensive thermal power generator, balance sheet leverage remains an inherent structural risk
- Heavy dependence on thermal generation exposes the company to evolving environmental regulations and rising renewable energy competition over the long term
- The wide gap between profit growth (20% 3-year CAGR) and sales growth (2% 3-year CAGR) may not be sustainable if cost-driven margin gains plateau
This is AI-generated analysis, not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.
AI News Digest
- BSE/NSE fine for non-compliance Aug 26
NTPC penalized ₹5,36,900 each by BSE and NSE for failing to comply with Regulation 17(1) for Q2FY27 due to delays in appointing independent directors.
- FY27 EPS decline forecast Aug 21
Bloomberg estimates EPS to decline 6.6% to ₹26.07 in FY27 from ₹27.90 in FY26, with Motilal Oswal also citing sluggish near-term earnings growth.
- Korba plant 2,100 MW shutdown Sep 4
All seven units at NTPC Korba tripped simultaneously on Sep 4 due to a PGCIL breaker testing fault, knocking out 2,100 MW and causing an estimated financial impact of ₹12.5-14.1 crore across generation loss and restart costs.
- Stock down 7% in past month Aug 31
NTPC shares declined ~4% over one week and ~7% over the past month, falling nearly 4% in 2026 YTD as of late August.
- Renewable target downside risk Sep 7
Motilal Oswal flags downside risk to NTPC's ~8GW renewable capacity addition target within the 9.5GW FY27 guidance, while renewable projects face grid curtailment in Rajasthan and Gujarat.
- 244 GW capacity target by 2037 Aug 27
CMD Gurdeep Singh announced ₹16.86 trillion cumulative capex through FY37, targeting 244 GW capacity including 60 GW renewables by 2032, with a record 9.6 GW added in FY26.
- Record FY26 PAT up 15% Aug 27
Consolidated PAT hit highest-ever ₹27,546 crore in FY26 (+15% YoY), standalone profit rose 18% to ₹23,162 crore, and EBITDA reached ₹60,564 crore with improved debt-equity ratio of 1.32.
- Strong Q1 FY27 results Aug 31
Standalone net profit rose 11.9% YoY to ₹5,342.4 crore in Q1 FY27, EBITDA climbed 22.8% to ₹12,629 crore, and EBITDA margin improved to 28.8% from 24.2%.
- Bernstein ₹450 target, 32% upside Aug 28
Bernstein set a ₹450 target price implying ~32% upside from ₹330.05, while Axis Direct maintains Buy with ₹420 target, citing 35.7 GW capacity under construction.
- ₹12,000 crore NCD raise approved Aug 27
Shareholders approved a special resolution at the 50th AGM to raise up to ₹12,000 crore via private placement of NCDs to fund growth capex.
- Record dividend forecast for FY27 Aug 21
Bloomberg projects FY27 dividend at ₹9.42/share (+4.7% over FY26's ₹9), a record high, with payout ratio rising to 36.11% and three-year dividend growth of 6.70%.
- Nuclear expansion across 13 states Aug 27
NTPC is targeting 30 GW nuclear capacity by 2030 with studies at 34 sites across 13 states, including a 2.8 GW Mahi Banswara project in Rajasthan with NPCIL.
- Five statutory auditors for FY27 Sep 8
NTPC appointed five CA firms as statutory auditors for FY27 following a directive from the Comptroller and Auditor General of India.
- Four Executive Directors retire Aug 31
Renu Narang and three other Executive Directors ceased their roles effective Aug 31, 2026 due to superannuation.
- Motilal Oswal Neutral at ₹378 Sep 7
Motilal Oswal assigned a Neutral rating with ₹378 target, acknowledging strong fundamentals but citing sluggish near-term earnings growth despite 86GW thermal capacity addition opportunity.
- ₹3.50 final dividend ex-date Sep 2 Aug 31
NTPC's ₹3.50/share final FY26 dividend went ex-date on Sep 2, 2026, with payment scheduled on or after Sep 23. Current dividend yield stands at 2.72%.
TL;DR: NTPC is executing an ambitious long-term growth plan with ₹16.86 trillion capex targeting 244 GW by 2037, backed by record FY26 profitability and strong Q1 FY27 results. Near-term headwinds include a projected FY27 EPS decline, the Korba plant shutdown incident, and stock underperformance YTD. Analyst sentiment is mixed with Bernstein bullish at ₹450 but Motilal Oswal cautious at ₹378. The long-term trajectory remains constructive given India's ~86GW thermal capacity requirement and NTPC's nuclear and renewable diversification, though execution on renewable targets and grid infrastructure will be key to watch.
Quarterly Results
| Particulars | Jun 2023 | Sep 2023 | Dec 2023 | Mar 2024 | Jun 2024 | Sep 2024 | Dec 2024 | Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | Sep 2025 | Dec 2025 | Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 43,075 | 44,983 | 42,820 | 47,628 | 48,529 | 44,706 | 45,069 | 49,834 | 47,064 | 44,786 | 45,846 | 49,686 | 50,741 |
| Expenses | 30,664 | 32,303 | 31,458 | 33,638 | 35,091 | 33,041 | 31,729 | 35,080 | 34,485 | 31,970 | 31,276 | 41,181 | 34,510 |
| Operating Profit | 12,411 | 12,680 | 11,362 | 13,990 | 13,438 | 11,665 | 13,341 | 14,754 | 12,579 | 12,816 | 14,570 | 8,505 | 16,231 |
| OPM % | 29% | 28% | 27% | 29% | 28% | 26% | 30% | 30% | 27% | 29% | 32% | 17% | 32% |
| Other Income | 994 | 1,024 | 2,532 | 1,400 | 1,187 | 3,218 | 986 | 4,180 | 3,241 | 2,734 | 1,738 | 1,918 | 1,549 |
| Interest | 2,922 | 2,921 | 3,250 | 2,955 | 3,136 | 3,621 | 2,764 | 3,648 | 3,468 | 3,432 | 3,164 | 3,737 | 3,386 |
| Depreciation | 3,821 | 4,038 | 4,074 | 4,271 | 4,204 | 4,216 | 4,318 | 4,663 | 4,587 | 4,816 | 5,093 | 5,134 | 5,234 |
| PBT | 6,661 | 6,746 | 6,571 | 8,164 | 7,284 | 7,046 | 7,245 | 10,623 | 7,765 | 7,301 | 8,050 | 1,553 | 9,160 |
| Tax % | 26% | 30% | 21% | 20% | 24% | 24% | 29% | 26% | 21% | 28% | 30% | -584% | 25% |
| Net Profit | 4,907 | 4,726 | 5,209 | 6,490 | 5,506 | 5,380 | 5,170 | 7,897 | 6,108 | 5,225 | 5,597 | 10,615 | 6,896 |
| EPS in Rs | 5.03 | 4.76 | 5.32 | 6.36 | 5.65 | 5.44 | 5.22 | 7.85 | 6.2 | 5.23 | 5.66 | 10.81 | 6.93 |
Profit & Loss
| Particulars | Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 79,957 | 73,396 | 82,042 | 88,083 | 1,00,287 | 1,09,464 | 1,11,531 | 1,32,669 | 1,76,207 | 1,78,525 | 1,88,138 | 1,87,385 | 1,91,059 |
| Expenses | 62,605 | 54,829 | 60,445 | 65,598 | 77,576 | 77,878 | 77,487 | 92,307 | 1,28,611 | 1,27,056 | 1,33,783 | 1,31,947 | 1,38,937 |
| Operating Profit | 17,352 | 18,568 | 21,598 | 22,485 | 22,710 | 31,586 | 34,044 | 40,362 | 47,596 | 51,469 | 54,355 | 55,438 | 52,121 |
| OPM % | 22% | 25% | 26% | 26% | 23% | 29% | 31% | 30% | 27% | 29% | 29% | 30% | 27% |
| Other Income | 2,338 | 1,188 | 1,592 | 5,576 | 2,818 | 8,209 | 5,021 | 4,809 | 2,561 | 5,177 | 8,526 | 2,662 | 7,938 |
| Interest | 3,669 | 3,366 | 3,753 | 4,447 | 5,605 | 8,189 | 9,224 | 9,376 | 11,447 | 12,301 | 13,282 | 13,801 | 13,719 |
| Depreciation | 5,565 | 5,771 | 6,010 | 7,460 | 8,669 | 10,356 | 12,450 | 13,788 | 14,792 | 16,204 | 17,401 | 19,629 | 20,276 |
| PBT | 10,456 | 10,618 | 13,426 | 16,154 | 11,255 | 21,250 | 17,390 | 22,007 | 23,917 | 28,142 | 32,198 | 24,669 | 26,064 |
| Tax % | 4% | -2% | 20% | 35% | -25% | 44% | 14% | 23% | 28% | 24% | 26% | -12% | — |
| Net Profit | 9,992 | 10,781 | 10,714 | 10,502 | 14,034 | 11,902 | 14,969 | 16,960 | 17,121 | 21,332 | 23,953 | 27,546 | 28,334 |
| EPS in Rs | 10.09 | 10.92 | 10.83 | 10.66 | 13.88 | 11.72 | 15.09 | 17.2 | 17.44 | 21.46 | 24.16 | 27.9 | 28.63 |
| Div. Payout % | 21% | 26% | 37% | 40% | 44% | 27% | 41% | 41% | 42% | 36% | 35% | 32% | — |
Balance Sheet
| Particulars | Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity Capital | 8,245 | 8,245 | 8,245 | 8,245 | 9,895 | 9,895 | 9,697 | 9,697 | 9,697 | 9,697 | 9,697 | 9,697 |
| Reserves | 73,849 | 83,330 | 89,593 | 95,318 | 1,01,462 | 1,08,945 | 1,16,042 | 1,25,677 | 1,37,326 | 1,51,013 | 1,74,374 | 1,93,479 |
| Borrowings | 1,02,252 | 99,424 | 1,13,773 | 1,30,049 | 1,73,058 | 2,00,630 | 2,10,208 | 2,10,707 | 2,22,913 | 2,37,131 | 2,50,096 | 2,71,005 |
| Other Liabilities | 35,366 | 33,666 | 36,990 | 48,880 | 62,509 | 58,202 | 62,075 | 69,751 | 77,253 | 81,437 | 89,565 | 84,262 |
| Total Liabilities | 2,19,712 | 2,24,665 | 2,48,601 | 2,82,492 | 3,46,923 | 3,77,671 | 3,98,022 | 4,15,831 | 4,47,189 | 4,79,278 | 5,23,732 | 5,58,442 |
| Fixed Assets | 91,853 | 92,929 | 1,04,532 | 1,28,245 | 1,50,985 | 1,87,803 | 2,03,245 | 2,24,923 | 2,40,424 | 2,58,934 | 2,71,437 | 3,18,697 |
| CWIP | 67,555 | 75,046 | 86,896 | 83,386 | 1,18,397 | 98,508 | 97,506 | 91,126 | 89,179 | 87,664 | 1,00,859 | 84,957 |
| Investments | 1,902 | 6,473 | 7,614 | 8,876 | 8,132 | 9,307 | 10,589 | 10,626 | 13,935 | 15,885 | 19,704 | 24,180 |
| Other Assets | 58,403 | 50,217 | 49,560 | 61,985 | 69,409 | 82,053 | 86,681 | 89,156 | 1,03,651 | 1,16,795 | 1,31,733 | 1,30,609 |
| Total Assets | 2,19,712 | 2,24,665 | 2,48,601 | 2,82,492 | 3,46,923 | 3,77,671 | 3,98,022 | 4,15,831 | 4,47,189 | 4,79,278 | 5,23,732 | 5,58,442 |
Cash Flow
| Particulars | Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating | 14,889 | 24,125 | 20,167 | 19,670 | 18,686 | 24,583 | 32,444 | 41,788 | 47,152 | 40,099 | 50,488 | 50,902 |
| Investing | -15,977 | -19,162 | -24,480 | -20,678 | -24,063 | -30,322 | -21,034 | -22,891 | -26,145 | -31,456 | -45,852 | -37,578 |
| Financing | -1,474 | -3,899 | 3,138 | 1,028 | 4,927 | 6,004 | -11,049 | -19,172 | -21,217 | -8,246 | -4,073 | -11,328 |
| Net Cash Flow | -2,563 | 1,064 | -1,176 | 19 | -451 | 266 | 360 | -274 | -210 | 398 | 563 | 1,995 |
| Free Cash Flow | -4,431 | 3,110 | -4,161 | 912 | -2,842 | 6,521 | 9,162 | 17,457 | 22,432 | 9,358 | 9,431 | 6,895 |
| CFO/OP | 97 | 137 | 106 | 79 | 98 | 89 | 104 | 109 | 108 | 85 | 101 | 98 |
Ratios
| Particulars | Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debtor Days | 42 | 41 | 40 | 37 | 45 | 68 | 92 | 77 | 62 | 68 | 67 | 71 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 42 | 41 | 40 | 37 | 45 | 68 | 92 | 77 | 62 | 68 | 67 | 71 |
| Working Capital Days | -47 | -39 | -52 | -44 | -106 | -35 | -61 | -62 | -43 | -45 | -37 | -54 |
| ROCE % | 8% | 7% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 9% |
Insights
BetaAI-extracted from concalls & annual reports · figures as reported, with sources
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Company Information
NTPC (National Thermal Power Corporation) Ltd along with its subsidiaries/ associates & JVs is primarily involved in generation and sale of bulk power to State power utilities. Other business of the group includes providing consultancy, project management & supervision, energy trading, oil & gas exploration and coal mining.[1]
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