ITC
ITC
FMCG F&OKey Fundamentals
LargecapDiversified FMCGFMCGTapetide Score
Data-driven rating, 0–100. How it works →
Key Insights
Strengths
4- Company is almost debt free.
- Stock is providing a good dividend yield of 5.58%.
- Company has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 35.2%
- Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 74.5%
Weaknesses
1- The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 9.87% over past five years.
Growth Rate
AI Analysis — Bull vs Bear
ITC Ltd trades at a market cap of ₹3,25,140 Cr with a PE of 16.1x and a dividend yield of 5.59%. The company maintains a strong 3-year ROE of 35% and is virtually debt-free, though recent growth has slowed with TTM sales declining 3% and the stock down 38% over the past year.
- Virtually debt-free balance sheet provides financial flexibility and resilience across economic cycles
- Dividend yield of 5.59% is among the highest in the large-cap FMCG space, supported by a consistent payout ratio of 74.5%
- 3-year ROE of 35.2% and 5-year ROE of 32% demonstrate sustained high capital efficiency well above cost of equity
- 10-year compounded sales CAGR of 7% and profit CAGR of 8% indicate long-term earnings compounding ability
- PE of 16.1x is at a significant discount to FMCG peers like HUL (~55x) and Nestle (~70x), offering valuation comfort
- 5-year compounded profit growth of 10% shows the company has been able to expand earnings at a healthy pace over medium-term horizons
- Price-to-book of 4.48x is reasonable for a business generating 29%+ ROE, suggesting the stock is not excessively priced relative to asset quality
- Stock price has declined 38% over the past 1 year, reflecting significant negative sentiment and possible structural derating
- TTM sales growth is negative at -3%, signalling near-term revenue headwinds across key segments
- TTM profit growth is also negative at -1%, indicating margin or volume pressures despite the company's pricing power narrative
- 3-year stock CAGR of -15% shows the stock has destroyed value for medium-term holders even as broader indices rallied
- 5-year compounded sales growth of roughly 10% lags high-growth FMCG peers and is modest for a company of this scale
- 10-year stock CAGR of just 1% highlights persistent underperformance and suggests markets have structurally discounted the cigarette-heavy business model
- Heavy dependence on the cigarettes segment exposes the company to ongoing regulatory risk including taxation changes and advertising restrictions
- 3-year compounded profit CAGR has slowed to 3%, down sharply from the 5-year rate of 10%, suggesting decelerating earnings momentum
This is AI-generated analysis, not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.
AI News Digest
- Stock down 37% in 3 years Sep 5
ITC shares declined 37% over three years vs Sensex gaining 15%, falling 38% from 52-week high of ₹426.50 to ~₹264. Tobacco business implied at just 11X forward P/E per Kotak reverse-SoTP.
- Illicit trade risk post tax hike Aug 27
CMD Sanjiv Puri flagged loss of franchise to illicit trade as biggest fear after recent cigarette tax increase, noting some market shift is likely given the magnitude of the hike. ITC is staging pricing to minimise impact.
- FSSAI labelling dispute ongoing Aug 25
FSSAI issued show cause notice over Aashirvaad '100% Atta' and '0% Maida' claims violating May 2025 advisory. Delhi HC granted interim relief restraining licence cancellation, next hearing Sep 9.
- Tobacco EBIT flat through FY29 Sep 5
Kotak models ITC tobacco segment EBIT to remain flat over FY2026-29E, while the stock has lost its top-10 most valued company status, now ranking 23rd with ₹3.31 lakh crore market cap.
- Aashirvaad's FMCG scaling rapidly Sep 13
Value-added variants scaled ~1.7x over two years to 16% of Aashirvaad's staples portfolio. Total FMCG consumer spend grew from ₹15,000 crore in FY20 to over ₹34,000 crore in FY25, reaching 260 million households.
- FMCG-Others segment strong growth Sep 13
FMCG-Others revenue up 12% YoY (16% ex-Staples) with segment PBIT up 21% YoY in Q1 FY27. Dairy, Snacks, Noodles and Frozen Snacks growing 20%+, with NewGen and Modern Trade channels at 34% of Branded Packaged Foods sales.
- ITC Infotech-Happiest Minds merger Aug 31
ITC Infotech acquiring 22.1% Happiest Minds stake for ₹1,330 crore, followed by amalgamation creating India's 11th-largest listed IT firm with ~$791M pro-forma revenue targeting $1B by FY28. ITC to hold 73.4% of combined entity valued at ₹18,000 crore.
- Kotak SoTP implies 36% upside Sep 5
Kotak assigns 12-month SoTP fair value of ₹360 vs current ₹264, with non-tobacco FMCG EBIT projected at 19% CAGR over FY2026-29E. Suggests vertical split of tobacco/non-tobacco could unlock significant shareholder value.
- 7M retail outlet distribution Sep 13
ITC products available at nearly 70 lakh retail outlets with market coverage ~2x pre-pandemic levels. UNNATI eB2B platform covers ~8 lakh outlets, and 12 ICML facilities support product freshness strategy.
- GST ITC relief under examination Aug 17
Government actively examining easing GST input tax credit restrictions on immovable property construction for own use, discussing with states. Would reduce costs for capital-intensive sectors if approved.
- Investor conference participation Sep 9
ITC attending Jefferies India Forum on Sep 18, 2026 in Gurugram and J.P. Morgan India Conference on Sep 21, 2026 in Mumbai.
- Regional festive marketing push Sep 6
ITC Foods running intensive regional festival campaigns at Puri Jagannath Yatra, planning Durga Puja and Chhath Puja activations. Strategy shifting from product showcases to cultural integration with brands like Yippee and Bingo.
- HC jurisdiction yet undecided Aug 25
Delhi HC has not determined territorial jurisdiction over ITC's FSSAI challenge, directing written submissions. Interim protection holds until Sep 9 hearing, balancing regulatory enforcement with procedural fairness.
TL;DR: ITC's FMCG diversification is delivering strong results with FMCG-Others PBIT up 21% YoY and consumer spend doubling in five years, but the stock remains under severe pressure at -37% over three years as the core tobacco business faces flat earnings, tax-driven illicit trade risks, and an FSSAI labelling dispute. The Happiest Minds-ITC Infotech merger adds a new growth vector targeting $1B IT revenue by FY28. Kotak's ₹360 SoTP valuation suggests meaningful upside if the market re-rates the non-tobacco businesses, but near-term sentiment hinges on tobacco earnings stability and regulatory clarity on the atta labelling issue.
Quarterly Results
| Particulars | Jun 2023 | Sep 2023 | Dec 2023 | Mar 2024 | Jun 2024 | Sep 2024 | Dec 2024 | Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | Sep 2025 | Dec 2025 | Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 17,164 | 17,774 | 17,195 | 17,038 | 17,778 | 19,990 | 18,790 | 18,765 | 21,495 | 19,502 | 20,047 | 17,825 | 19,114 |
| Expenses | 10,494 | 11,320 | 10,985 | 10,736 | 11,233 | 13,438 | 12,428 | 12,246 | 14,678 | 12,807 | 13,165 | 10,900 | 13,934 |
| Operating Profit | 6,670 | 6,454 | 6,210 | 6,302 | 6,545 | 6,552 | 6,362 | 6,519 | 6,816 | 6,695 | 6,883 | 6,924 | 5,181 |
| OPM % | 39% | 36% | 36% | 37% | 37% | 33% | 34% | 35% | 32% | 34% | 34% | 39% | 27% |
| Other Income | 722 | 674 | 820 | 868 | 771 | 690 | 803 | 15,391 | 751 | 739 | 322 | 700 | 1,148 |
| Interest | 10 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 15 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 20 | 19 | 29 | 40 |
| Depreciation | 442 | 453 | 384 | 385 | 403 | 416 | 416 | 411 | 423 | 435 | 431 | 422 | 428 |
| PBT | 6,940 | 6,665 | 6,635 | 6,774 | 6,903 | 6,811 | 6,740 | 21,489 | 7,128 | 6,979 | 6,754 | 7,173 | 5,861 |
| Tax % | 25% | 26% | 19% | 23% | 25% | 26% | 26% | 8% | 25% | 26% | 26% | 24% | 23% |
| Net Profit | 5,190 | 4,965 | 5,407 | 5,191 | 5,177 | 5,054 | 5,013 | 19,808 | 5,343 | 5,187 | 5,018 | 5,470 | 4,509 |
| EPS in Rs | 4.1 | 3.93 | 4.28 | 4.1 | 4.08 | 3.99 | 3.94 | 15.76 | 4.19 | 4.09 | 3.94 | 4.3 | 3.51 |
Profit & Loss
| Particulars | Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 38,817 | 39,192 | 42,768 | 43,449 | 48,340 | 49,388 | 49,257 | 60,645 | 70,919 | 67,932 | 75,323 | 78,868 | 76,488 |
| Expenses | 24,566 | 24,661 | 27,298 | 26,928 | 29,802 | 30,044 | 32,193 | 40,021 | 45,215 | 42,744 | 49,492 | 51,562 | 50,806 |
| Operating Profit | 14,252 | 14,531 | 15,470 | 16,521 | 18,537 | 19,344 | 17,065 | 20,623 | 25,704 | 25,188 | 25,832 | 27,306 | 25,682 |
| OPM % | 37% | 37% | 36% | 38% | 38% | 39% | 35% | 34% | 36% | 37% | 34% | 35% | 34% |
| Other Income | 1,229 | 1,483 | 1,759 | 2,240 | 2,080 | 2,417 | 2,577 | 1,910 | 2,098 | 3,330 | 17,803 | 2,523 | 2,908 |
| Interest | 91 | 78 | 49 | 115 | 71 | 81 | 58 | 60 | 78 | 39 | 45 | 85 | 108 |
| Depreciation | 1,028 | 1,077 | 1,153 | 1,236 | 1,397 | 1,645 | 1,646 | 1,732 | 1,809 | 1,518 | 1,646 | 1,711 | 1,715 |
| PBT | 14,362 | 14,859 | 16,026 | 17,409 | 19,150 | 20,035 | 17,938 | 20,740 | 25,915 | 26,961 | 41,943 | 28,033 | 26,766 |
| Tax % | 32% | 36% | 35% | 34% | 33% | 22% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 23% | 16% | 25% | — |
| Net Profit | 9,779 | 9,501 | 10,477 | 11,493 | 12,836 | 15,593 | 13,383 | 15,503 | 19,477 | 20,751 | 35,052 | 21,018 | 20,184 |
| EPS in Rs | 8.04 | 7.74 | 8.47 | 9.24 | 10.27 | 12.45 | 10.69 | 12.37 | 15.44 | 16.39 | 27.77 | 16.51 | 15.84 |
| Div. Payout % | 52% | 73% | 56% | 56% | 56% | 82% | 101% | 93% | 100% | 84% | 52% | 88% | — |
Balance Sheet
| Particulars | Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity Capital | 802 | 805 | 1,215 | 1,220 | 1,226 | 1,229 | 1,231 | 1,232 | 1,243 | 1,248 | 1,251 | 1,253 |
| Reserves | 30,934 | 41,875 | 45,198 | 51,290 | 57,915 | 64,044 | 59,116 | 61,223 | 67,912 | 73,259 | 68,779 | 71,254 |
| Borrowings | 269 | 84 | 46 | 36 | 13 | 277 | 271 | 249 | 306 | 303 | 285 | 2,399 |
| Other Liabilities | 13,948 | 8,888 | 9,440 | 11,695 | 12,585 | 11,760 | 13,143 | 14,491 | 16,370 | 16,944 | 17,688 | 18,731 |
| Total Liabilities | 45,952 | 51,651 | 55,898 | 64,241 | 71,739 | 77,311 | 73,761 | 77,196 | 85,831 | 91,754 | 88,003 | 93,637 |
| Fixed Assets | 15,303 | 15,107 | 15,893 | 16,524 | 19,374 | 21,713 | 23,298 | 24,232 | 25,851 | 27,820 | 21,955 | 22,443 |
| CWIP | 2,700 | 2,560 | 3,730 | 5,508 | 4,136 | 3,256 | 4,011 | 3,226 | 3,003 | 2,861 | 1,091 | 1,602 |
| Investments | 6,943 | 11,748 | 17,581 | 22,053 | 25,043 | 28,663 | 24,871 | 24,841 | 29,415 | 31,114 | 34,720 | 38,128 |
| Other Assets | 21,006 | 22,237 | 18,694 | 20,156 | 23,185 | 23,678 | 21,580 | 24,898 | 27,561 | 29,959 | 30,237 | 31,464 |
| Total Assets | 45,952 | 51,651 | 55,898 | 64,241 | 71,739 | 77,311 | 73,761 | 77,196 | 85,831 | 91,754 | 88,003 | 93,637 |
Cash Flow
| Particulars | Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating | 9,843 | 9,799 | 10,627 | 13,169 | 12,583 | 14,690 | 12,527 | 15,776 | 18,878 | 17,179 | 17,627 | 18,464 |
| Investing | -5,275 | -3,921 | -3,251 | -7,114 | -5,546 | -6,174 | 5,740 | -2,238 | -5,732 | 1,563 | -564 | -2,321 |
| Financing | -4,661 | -5,613 | -7,301 | -6,221 | -6,869 | -8,181 | -18,634 | -13,580 | -13,006 | -18,551 | -17,037 | -16,147 |
| Net Cash Flow | -93 | 266 | 75 | -166 | 169 | 334 | -367 | -43 | 139 | 191 | 26 | -4 |
| Free Cash Flow | 6,552 | 7,459 | 7,556 | 10,371 | 9,442 | 12,276 | 10,693 | 13,767 | 16,184 | 13,724 | 15,524 | 16,332 |
| CFO/OP | 100 | 102 | 104 | 116 | 99 | 102 | 99 | 101 | 98 | 92 | 93 | 91 |
Ratios
| Particulars | Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debtor Days | 19 | 18 | 21 | 23 | 30 | 19 | 19 | 15 | 15 | 22 | 23 | 18 |
| Inventory Days | 212 | 244 | 185 | 173 | 165 | 187 | 189 | 150 | 148 | 191 | 178 | 209 |
| Days Payable | 50 | 63 | 60 | 80 | 74 | 76 | 78 | 61 | 59 | 65 | 55 | 63 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 181 | 199 | 145 | 115 | 122 | 129 | 129 | 104 | 105 | 148 | 146 | 164 |
| Working Capital Days | -6 | 51 | 45 | 31 | 32 | 35 | 36 | 31 | 20 | 39 | 45 | 47 |
| ROCE % | 47% | 40% | 36% | 34% | 34% | 32% | 28% | 33% | 39% | 36% | 37% | 39% |
Insights
BetaAI-extracted from concalls & annual reports · figures as reported, with sources
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Company Information
Established in 1910, ITC is the largest cigarette manufacturer and seller in the country. ITC operates in four business segments at present — FMCG Cigarettes, FMCG Others, Paperboards, Paper and Packaging, and Agri Business. [1]
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